March 14, 2011

Is it wise to put faith in the Farmer's Almanac?

By MELINDA WILLIAMSON

“The Old Farmer's Almanac” is guilty of what James Spann calls voodoo weather prediction on his weather blog at www.alabamawx.com. Weather prediction beyond seven days is extremely unpredictable and therefore “as mystical as voodoo.”

Calculating weather for an entire year would be preposterous to any meteorologist, yet “The Old Farmer's Almanac” continues to make its year-long predictions year after year.

Is it sometimes right? Of course it is.

Chances are most people would be right a few times a year if they said it was going to be extremely hot the second week of July or bitterly cold the second week of January. The majority of the time, however, people depend on Mr. Spann's (or some other meteorologist's) seven-day forecast, as well they should.

This is because the almanac is no better at predicting the weather than the layman is at predicting a flood six months from now (Mark your calendars, people. It's going to rain in April; flowers in May).

Yet, as the winter of 2010-2011 rolled white blankets of snow onto the ground across northeast Alabama, many old Southerners have proclaimed that the almanac predicted it.

To some degree, they may be right.

Since December 2010, many Southerners have seen more days of snow than they have in their lifetimes (not discounting the Blizzard of 1993). Thinking that there may be something to “The Old Farmer's Almanac” and its weather predictions, many people have picked up a copy to judge its accuracy for themselves.

A thorough study of the current issue reveals that “The Old Farmer's Almanac” predicted rain, snow, and bitter cold for Jan. 11-22. Dates within this range should be familiar to all Cherokee County students currently attending school on Saturdays to make up for days lost to snow and ice. The almanac also calculated a very cold and snowy winter for the South in general – an eerily accurate prediction.

While many Southerners still peer into what they consider the crystal ball known as “The Old Farmer's Almanac,” it is worth mentioning that more often than not the book is dead wrong.

Remember northeast Alabama's first white Christmas since who-knows-when? The Almanac had predicted sunny and warm. As of late, the mid-60 degree temperatures we all enjoyed in mid-February were supposed to have been another round of snowdrifts instead.

Fathers conducting early baseball practices and green thumbs who have already been visiting local garden departments and greenhouses are surely grateful for the almanac's inaccurate predictions as well.

For those trying out your green thumbs, follow “the signs” with caution. The almanac may advise planting by “the signs,” but its weather predictions may not cooperate with your fragile plant life. We'll see what happens.

Overall, it's probably best to take the advice of “The Old Farmer's Almanac” with the same attitude as a psychic's prophecy or a voodoo curse —interesting, yet probably useless.