March 24, 2008

Rainfall levels near normal across Southeast

MONTGOMERY (AP) — Climate experts say drought conditions across the Southeast have improved dramatically with the help of recent rains, but the region is not in the clear yet.

Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center, said Thursday the recent improvements have been encouraging — the most severe level of drought covered nearly a quarter of the region at the start of the year but now covers only a small fraction of 1 percent.

But he said the Southeast, where drinking water has been threatened in some locales, is still vulnerable and people should make an effort to conserve water.

Precipitation levels so far this year have hovered around normal, which is welcome relief after an unusually dry 18-to-24 month period, with 2007 being the driest year on record for Alabama and the second-driest on record for the Atlanta area.

In the report last week from the U.S. Drought Monitor, less than 2 percent of Alabama was suffering from exceptional drought — the government's most severe drought condition. That's down from about 39 percent of the state on Jan. 1. And while just a little pocket of the state around Mobile was spared any drought conditions late last year, about 21 percent of Alabama was drought-free last week.

The changes in Alabama have been mirrored across the Southeast as steady, normal rainfall has quenched the region. Only a little more than one-fourth of 1 percent of the Southeast was under exceptional drought conditions this week, compared to 22 percent at the start of the year.

Rainfall has been within an inch or two of normal in most parts of the state this year, said Jim Westland, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Birmingham. He said the northeastern corner of the state — along with parts of Tennessee and northern Georgia — still suffers from below-normal rainfall and are still under exceptional drought conditions.

The increased rainfall has been good news for the region's farmers.

"We're in very good shape as far as soil moisture goes," said Chuck Browne, County Extension Coordinator for Lee County.

He said that bodes well for planting later in the spring and has already been a boon for cattle producers who use winter grazing.

"We went into the fall with a severe hay shortage and we really needed nature to work with us, and it really has," he said. "All the winter grazing fields I've seen have just been beautiful."

Fuchs stressed that while rivers and reservoirs are getting back to normal levels and surface soil moisture is improving, there are more serious hydrological problems that will take longer to heal. He said the deeper levels of soil and water table levels are slower to respond.

"On the short term, we've had very good improvement. Things are starting to green up, and we're seeing water levels improving in streams and rivers," Fuchs said. "But the area is still vulnerable."

He said it wouldn't take much to send the region backsliding into the grips of a severe drought.

"I don't think we can say the area is out of the woods, especially given the projected temperatures and precipitation over the coming months," Fuchs said.

Projections for April through June, he said, are for above-normal temperatures and normal levels of precipitation. He said recovery will really depend on how quickly elevated temperatures start heating up the Southeast since higher temperatures lead to higher water consumption.

"Last August was the icing on the cake as far as showing how bad it can get," Fuchs said, noting that consecutive days of temperatures topping 100 degrees compounded the effects of last summer's drought.