It is reasonable to suppose that former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman sweated out the months of May and June, and not because of the heat.

The U.S. Supreme Court, which has been sitting on his case since he appealed to it last August, had until July 5 — the final day of its 2010 term — to rule on that appeal.

The country's highest court had two basic choices: It could uphold Siegelman's conviction and assure his sooner-than-later return to prison; or take one of several possible measures, each of which would prolong that return and possibly keep him free for good.

Last Tuesday, the Supreme Court chose one of the latter options. It didn't agree to hear Siegelman's appeal, which would have been his best-case scenario. Rather, the court issued a brief order directing the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit Court of Appeals to reconsider its March 2009 decision upholding Siegelman's conviction (for reasons shortly to be explained.)

Siegelman and his lawyers hailed it as a great victory. Considering the alternative — a fast-track back to prison — Siegelman had every right to be elated. But even he conceded that he'd won a battle, not the war. So what, ultimately, does Tuesday's ruling mean for Siegelman and his co-defendant, former HealthSouth chairman Richard Scrushy?

This is a complicated case with a complicated past and it's not getting any simpler. I can't claim to understand it all, but hopefully I can provide some clarity and explain why I believe — am in fact pretty certain — that last week's decision merely delays the inevitable. In other words, that Siegelman will return to prison.
First, a brief recap of some key events the case.

In October 2005, a federal grand jury in Montgomery indicted Siegelman on 32 criminal charges, some of which involved Scrushy, who was also indicted. The following June, a jury found Siegelman guilty of seven of the charges — six of the Scrushy charges and a charge of using a series of sham check transactions to cover up a $9,200 payment to him from landfill developer Lanny Young. Young, as Cherokee County readers may know, previously pleaded guilty to bribing probate judge Philip Jordan, who served a prison sentence in a matter involving the Three Corners Landfill.

In June 2007, federal judge Mark Fuller sentenced both Siegelman and Scrushy to about seven years. They were ordered directly to prison, in my opinion, because of Fuller's anger at bogus attacks by the defendants and their attorneys on the jurors after the verdict.

In March 2008, a three-judge panel of the 11th Circuit ordered Siegelman freed based on its finding that he had a reasonable chance of success on appeal. Scrushy, though, had to remain at a federal prison in Texas. Pending sentencing, he had taken an unauthorized trip in Florida on his yacht, and was deemed a flight risk. Thus, he was denied an appeal bond.

In March 2009, another 3-judge panel of the 11th Circuit ruled on Siegelman's (and Scrushy's) appeal. That detailed 68-page order is the obstacle that Siegelman cannot overcome. The 11th Circuit dismissed two of the Scrushy-related charges against Siegelman but delivered a powerful and (in my opinion) legally air-tight defense of the remaining five charges.

As expected, Siegelman appealed to the Supreme Court, but the law of averages was not on their side. Each year the court receives about 7,000 appeals. Of those, it considers about 100. It was Siegelman's great good fortune that during its 2010 session, the Supreme Court decided to tackle the constitutionality of criminal cases involving the "honest services" statute, which indeed is vague in many cases. Two of the remaining charges against Siegelman involved that law, and four of the six against Scrushy cite the statute.

Two weeks ago, the court ruled on one of those cases — an appeal by former Enron executive Jeffrey Skilling. The ruling promises to limit the ability of prosecutors to use the honest services law. However, the court found that prosecutors may continue to apply the "honest services" statute in cases involving bribery and kickbacks.
And that's the rub for Siegelman. The two "honest services" charges against him involve bribery, and again, the "honest services" statute isn't part of the other three charges.

The jury, like the 11th Circuit, considered evidence regarding a host of bizarre transactions, the totality of which undermines characterizations by Siegelman and the New York Times that he was convicted for accepting a mere donation and then appointing Scrushy to a state board.

One of the checks came from a near-bankrupt Maryland healthcare company by way of New York-based investment bank UBS. Neither of the "donations" was reported to the secretary of state or IRS until more than two years later, after a series of stories in the Press-Register. Siegelman was also liable for a $700,000-plus loan that the money allowed him to repay.

After the "Skilling" ruling, even some websites known to be fervently pro-Siegelman expressed disappointment that it wouldn't help their man because of the bribery exception. Now, per last week's order, the ball is back in the 11th Circuit's court. It could act quickly — which for an appeals court, means a month or two — and issue a ruling stating that the "Skilling" limitations on honest services cases don't apply to Siegelman's case. Or, the 11th Circuit could play it cautious and order the parties to file briefs, perhaps even hold oral arguments, on the relevance of "Skilling" to Siegelman's case. If that happens, Siegelman, regardless of the outcome, will probably be guaranteed a year or more of freedom. It doesn't end there. Because the 11th Circuit tossed two of the charges against Siegelman, he must be re-sentenced once all of the above is resolved.

I think he'll be lucky to get a year shaved off his seven-year sentence. If that scenario pans out then Siegelman, 64, will in the next few months return to prison for about five more years.

When it's all said and done, Scrushy may be glad he took that yacht trip in Florida. Because of that unauthorized venture, he will have served his time, or much of it. Meanwhile, his co-defendant, Alabama's 51st governor, will spend a considerable block of his golden years housed in a federal prison.

Eddie Curran was an investigative reporter for the Mobile Press-Register until 2007, when he left to write his recently published book, "The Governor of Goat Hill: Don Siegelman, the Reporter who Exposed his Crimes, and the Hoax that Suckered some of the Purchase the book online at www.eddiecurran.com.