Sept. 21, 2011

SEC Week Four: Here's how to go undefeated

By SCOTT WRIGHT

This week’s list for the WEIS End Zone Show football picks segment is one that even Nolen Sanford can love. That is, the wheat and the chaff of the Southeastern Conference are, generally, beginning to delineate themselves quite clearly. Now this prognostication game is largely a matter of separating teams into the appropriate piles for future reference.  

Alabama and LSU? Wheat. Auburn and Ole Miss? Chaff. Just about the only teams left blowing in the breeze, at this point, are South Carolina and Georgia. And we’ll find out this weekend whether or not either of them is capable of delivering a fully baked loaf of bread.  

Speaking of half-baked, my friend Nolen apparently spent a little too much time last week picking at something other than his SEC schedule. He’s hovering at around .500 (actually, he’s at .667, but I’m rounding down), while Shannon Fagan, one uncommonly keen 6th grader and I are well on our way to laying claim to the label that all Sunday morning football fools in the South strive for … that of “SEC Football Prognosticator Extraordinaire”.  

For most of us on the WEIS End Zone Show, this week looks to be another cake walk. Please read with great interest my sure-fire predictions and marvel afterwards as I move eight wins closer to claiming the 2011 season title.

 

No. 14 Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama
The No. 2-ranked Crimson Tide has not yet faced a team as aggressive and explosive as this Arkansas offense. Unfortunately for the Hogs, the “junior high” quality of Alabama’s schedule also means Nick Saban hasn’t turned past page one of his defensive playbook. I can just about guarantee that by the time the Razorbacks’ QB takes his final snap, Bama defenders will have attacked him from every angle except a straight-down repel off the upper deck. (Tyler Wilson, meet the kitchen sink.) This one may go back-and-forth for three quarters, but the crowd noise and Bama’s swarming “D” will create the mistakes that will prove the difference. (Side bet: Look for Alabama to come out throwing – yes, throwing – against an Arkansas defense that gave up 373 yards to Troy last week.) Final: 27-17, Alabama

 

Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State
The Bulldog offense was just plain horrible last week against what is, admittedly, an incredibly stingy LSU defense. Running back Vick Ballard had only 38 yards on the ground and QB Chris Relf couldn’t manage triple digits throwing the ball. Look for MSU’s offense to perform a little better and find a way to win a close one against Louisiana Tech – a school that I know almost nothing about except that former Steelers great Terry Bradshaw is an alumnus. Final: 28-20, Mississippi State

 

Florida Atlantic at Auburn
The good news is that Auburn’s offense is zooming right along under the tutelage of Gus Malzahn. The bad news is that Malzahn isn’t coaching the defense, too. As a result, the Tigers are giving up enough yards per game to traverse the Empire State Building from one end to the other, and then some (543 yards per game, to be precise). Luckily, there are a couple of bright spots for Auburn this week. First, the Auburn eagle mascot, Spirit, is recovering nicely after crashing into the upper deck at Jordan-Hare Stadium a couple weeks ago. Second, despite being coached by Bear Bryant disciple Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic is one of the worst teams in college football. Final: 45-17, Auburn

 

No. 2 LSU at No. 16 West Virginia
Coach Les Miles’s offense doesn’t have terrific numbers after three games, but the Bayou Bengals are undefeated and there’s little chance that will change this weekend. The running game is solid, which helps QB Jarrett Lee get a little more comfortable every week; and the Tiger defense is the biggest bully in whatever neighborhood it happens to be in. The key to this game, I think, lies in the trenches. On both sides of the ball, LSU is bigger, stronger and faster than the Mountaineers. Lee may have to step up for the Tigers and lead at some point this season (Nov. 5 in Tuscaloosa comes to mind) but his overbearing teammates will easily push West Virginia out of the way Saturday night. Final: 31-13, LSU

 

Vanderbilt at No. 12 South Carolina
South Carolina
’s hot-and-cold offensive attack faces another tough test against a Commodores defense that held Ole Miss to less than 100 yards rushing last week. Marcus Lattimore will have to find a way to duplicate last week’s rushing performance (246 yards, three touchdowns). He’ll probably get plenty of chances, too, since Steve Spurrier doesn’t have enough confidence in his quarterbacks to throw the ball unless it’s third-and-a-bus-ride. Vandy is much improved under new coach James Franklin … but they’re still just Vandy, right? I don’t know. This is the toughest game of the week to predict, especially considering that the Commodores are the No. 10 defense in the nation right now. Heck, this game is for the lead in the SEC East Division! I’ll stick with the home team, in a close one. Final: 23-19, South Carolina

 

No. 15 Florida at Kentucky
“We didn’t block well but we made up for it not tackling well,” head coach John McKay deadpanned 35 years ago after yet another lopsided loss by his bumbling Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They same could have been said of the Kentucky Wildcats after last week’s loss – they averaged 1.1 yards per rush and gave up nearly 200 yards on the ground to a substandard Louisville team. The Kentucky passing attack isn’t quite as atrocious, but the outcome of this one is a foregone conclusion unless the Florida team bus breaks down on the way to Commonwealth Stadium. Will Muschamp’s team keeps getting better every single week. Quarterback John Brantley is getting his head around Charlie Weis’s pro-style offense and it showed last week against Tennessee (213 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions). The Gator defense is fine-tuning its delivery, as well. What they are going to do to Joker Phillips’ so-called “offense” on Saturday ought to be laugh-out-loud funny. Final: 38-10, Florida

 

Georgia at Mississippi
If the 2011 season contains a race to the bottom of the SEC coaching pool, Mark Richt and Houston Nutt both have belly-flopped into the deep end, and are neck-and-neck and sinking fast. Saturday’s loser will be the first to officially hit the floor. I still believe Richt is simply going through the motions and checking his mailbox daily for a registered envelope from the UGA director of athletics. And who the heck knows exactly what's going on at Ole Miss? If I’m right this game, the Rebels will probably end up being underdogs in the rest of their games this season, including at home against Louisiana Tech on Nov. 12. After the vow I made in last week’s column I realize I’m picking against my own best interests here. But from what I’ve seen so far this season, Georgia won’t get past any of its next three opponents (Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt). Final: 24-13, Georgia

 

Eastern Illinois at Jacksonville State
The Gamecocks could only manage a 14-14 halftime score in last week’s outing against a fledging Georgia State team, until Centre native Coty Blanchard scored two second-half touchdowns to seal the win and a 2-1 record. Ohio Valley Conference play begins Saturday at Burgess-Snow Field and Eastern Illinois, coached by a man named Bob Spoo – that’s S-P-O-O – at least looks like the team to get off on the right foot against. The Panthers (1-2) throw the ball well but can’t seem to stop the run. That defensive disinclination may play directly into JSU’s hands, as they seem more comfortable focusing on the ground game since Blanchard took over at quarterback. Final: 27-24, Jacksonville State

 

Tennessee (Open)
Did you see the pants Tennessee coach Derek Dooley was wearing last week in the Swamp? Geez. Somewhere in the Midwest, a county fair clown is walking around in his underwear. The Volunteers gets a much-needed vacation this week, and I can only imagine that they’ll use part of that free time to transport their game pants to the team tailor to have multiple Gator bite marks in the rear areas patched over. It was truly a horrible day for the Road Crew Orange Crew: hotshot QB Tyler Bray threw a pair of interceptions, special teams gave up a blocked punt, and the rushing game had nine fewer yards when the game was over than they did before the coin toss. (Seriously.) Don’t buy too many pairs of those day-glow orange pants, coach Dooley. If this keeps up, you’ll never make it to the bottom of your dresser drawer. Next week: University of Buffalo