Oct. 5, 2011

I felt pretty good about last week, but now ...

By SCOTT WRIGHT

I don’t know how I knew Auburn was going to beat South Carolina last weekend, but I did. I just did. I had a feeling, a gut feeling, deep down inside, the first time I began to conjure in my mind what the outcome of that game in Columbia might be like. Admittedly, I blew it big-time on the final score. (My humble apologies if you bet the “over” based on my advice.)  But I just knew I was going to be right about the outcome, somehow.  

Probably, it was nothing more than dumb luck. Consequently, if there’s any such thing as Karma in the universe I’m likely to lose more than my share of the toss-ups on this week’s schedule. And make no mistake, there are at least three games on this list that could absolutely go either way.  

Oh, well. Even if I do miss a few I’ll still be a game or two ahead of Nolen “Dart Over My Shoulder” Sanford. No picking blindly, here. Let’s get started.

 

Vanderbilt at No. 2 Alabama
Former Alabama head coach Gene Stallings is fond of saying that his preferred type of team is one that can run the football, stop the run, have a positive giveaway/takeaway ratio and is a good third-down team. Last week, the Crimson Tide rushed for 226 yards and held Florida to only 15; ‘Bama had two takeaways and didn’t give the ball back once; and behind the leadership of quarterback A.J. McCarron – who’s starting to look really sharp out there – the Tide offense converted a very respectable 54 percent of third down attempts. Against the Commodores, Alabama’s numbers should be even more impressive than a week ago. And so should the final score. Final: Alabama 45, Vanderbilt 7

 

No. 15 Auburn at No. 10 Arkansas
There isn’t a single, solitary Auburn fan who can honestly tell you that, going into this season, they ran a pencil down the schedule and circled South Carolina as a possible win. The Tigers are young and erratic on both sides of the ball, but somehow they always seem to find a way to be in the game at the end. As a result, five weeks into the season, Auburn is 4-1. Hogs QB Tyler Wilson lit up the second-half scoreboard in a comeback win over Texas A&M last week, and if Auburn continues this pattern of playing to the level of its competition, we could have a shootout similar to last year’s 65-43 scoreboard-buster. It’s a coin toss, but, ultimately, I’m not circling the Tigers this week. Final: 45-41, Arkansas

 

No. 17 Florida at No. 1 LSU
No coin toss here. With the Gators forced to call on a freshman quarterback because of John Brantley’s high ankle sprain, I don’t expect this to be much of a game. Typically, a young QB will lean on his running backs for support. Most everyone was convinced that Florida had a couple of good ones, but they proved little help against the Crimson Tide a week ago, managing only 15 yards rushing. This week, Florida faces an LSU defense that’s every bit as stingy on the ground, which means the Gators will have to try and throw the ball. Did I mention their quarterback is a freshman? Add to the mix recently reinstated – and thoroughly reinvigorated – Jordan Jefferson, and this one ought to be over with pretty quickly. Final: 38-13, LSU  

 

Mississippi State at UAB
Honestly, I had forgotten UAB has a football team. OK, that’s not entirely true, because the Birmingham TV news shows still toss in a few absymal Blazers highlights at the end of the Sunday night sports broadcast. But since that’s typically the moment when I flip over to see what’s happening on the History Channel, I know almost nothing about Neil Calloway’s team. How about that? I forgot I knew the coach’s name. The sportscaster on NBC 13 must have mentioned him before I could get my hands on the remote. Actually, Calloway’s a pretty good coach, or at least he was before he took the job at the worst school in Alabama to try and recruit football players to attend. As is typically the case for the Blazers, Saturday’s opponent will be bigger, faster and stronger. Final: 27-17, Mississippi State  

 

Georgia at Tennessee
Georgia players are heading into this week’s game with a chip on their shoulder because of Tennessee receiver Da’Rick Rogers, who originally committed to the Bulldogs before switching to the Vols. QB Tyler Bray said earlier this week that he expects a lot of trash-talking from the Georgia defense on Saturday. My concern is that the Dogs, though much improved since week one, might get caught up in their manufactured animosity and forget to play football. They mouthed off at midfield last week before the Mississippi State game, then backed it up on the field. I’m not so sure a second round of taunting, this time in Neyland Stadium, will deliver the same result. Final: 27-23, Tennessee
 

 

Kentucky at No. 18 South Carolina
Since it is too late to undo the colossal mistake of beginning the season with Steven Garcia under center, Steve Spurrier couldn’t have picked a better time to yank his struggling QB than the week the Wildcats come calling. Look for the Gamcocks to have more offensive success – or at least fewer interceptions – as they work sophomore signal caller Connor Shaw into a comfort zone with the help of Kentucky’s lax defense and the Marcus Lattimore’s outstanding ability to run, catch and run some more. With Mississippi State next and an off week on the schedule before a trip to Knoxville at the end of the month, Spurrier might still be able to get his offense running properly and save the Gamecocks’ season. Final: 31-17, South Carolina 

 

No. 24 Texas A&M at Texas Tech
Yes, it was my suggestion to go ahead and add Texas A&M (which, in case you’ve been under a rock, will join the SEC in 2012) to this year’s pick ‘em list. And no, I don’t know much about the Aggies, except that they have recently proven to be quite adept at playing a full 60 minutes. Unfortunately, it took them two games to do it. On Sept. 24 against Oklahoma State and again last week against Arkansas, the Aggies ran up double-digit halftime leads only to give away both contests before the final buzzer. The second collapse left the Aggies 0-7 against SEC teams since the Big 12 was formed in 1996. Newsflash: It’s not going to get any easier next year when the Aggies find themselves lined up against the likes of Alabama and LSU, one of which will likely be the defending national champion by then. I probably won’t pick A&M to win those games, either. Final: 38-31, Texas Tech