Oct. 11, 2011

Our blind squirrel finally finds a nut

By SCOTT WRIGHT

Well, well. WEIS Radio sports analyst Nolen Sanford finally found the bull’s eye with one of his haphazardly-thrown football-pickin’ darts. He went an astounding 8-0 last week, while my efforts were merely impressive (6-2).  

Unlike Nolen, however, I am consistent and use perception, wisdom and analysis to arrive at my picks each week. An anonymous source told me Nolen has already taken so many ill-advised tosses towards the schedule this season that they've had to re-hang the sheetrock on two walls at the radio station.  

I suppose he was bound to hit something, sooner or later. But slow and steady wins the race. After this week, I’ll have further closed in on our mystery middle school student and left Nolen and Shannon to fight it out amongst themselves for third place. Not a happy place to be in a four-man race, is it guys?

 

No. 2 Alabama at Ole Miss
Even more so that usual, this year’s annual matchup between the Tide and the Rebels will be a study in stark contrast. The Tide are one of the most complete teams in the country right now, from running and throwing, to stopping the opponent at every turn, to special teams, and everything else in between. Houston Nutt’s guys, on the other hand, often look like they’re taking the field after skipping the entire week of practice. Uncharacteristically, Alabama’s offense went three-and-out on its first two series last week, which prompted coach Nick Saban to say that his team “didn’t have the mental energy and intensity we like to have.” Poor old Ole Miss. By kickoff they will have had two weeks to watch film of this finely-tuned Tide team coming right at them. When the next wave breaks Saturday night, Saban’s newly-recharged “energy and intensity” will wash away all the fun from the Grove. Final: 42-10, Alabama

 

Florida at No. 24 Auburn
Some Auburn fans are screaming for a change at quarterback, and I have absolutely no idea why. Barrett Trotter is capable of running the offense and has thrown the ball reasonably well (79-of-141 passes for 976 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions) this season, notwithstanding his performance in Saturday’s loss to Arkansas. Kiehl Frazier, on the other hand, cannot throw the ball. He can’t do it, folks. Can’t. He’s only attempted five passes all year and he’s completed the same number of them to opponents (two) as to his own teammates. There’s no controversy here. Gene Chizik knows this, which is why, first-thing Tuesday morning, he named Trotter as this week’s starter. The game plan will be to give the ball to Michael Dyer and try to run though the Florida defense. Unfortunately for Chizik, the Gators are only giving up 115 yards a game rushing (eleventh-best in the nation). Toss in the fact that Auburn’s defense needs three promotions to suck right now, and the Gators get their first win in Jordan-Hare Stadium since 1999. Final: 33-17, Florida
 

 

No. 1 LSU at Tennessee
Much like what I anticipate Alabama will do between now and Nov. 5, the LSU Tigers will be on autopilot for the next few weeks. The Tigers’ balanced offense (183 yards rushing per game, 183 yards passing) will score pretty much as often as it wants against Tennessee’s porous defense, which averages giving up almost exactly as many yards per game (345) as LSU averages gaining. With no Tyler Bray at quarterback, this is the week Derek Dooley’s career record with the Vols (9-9) slips below .500 – and stays there for a while. Final: 38-13, LSU 

 

No. 15 South Carolina at Mississippi State
Speaking of quarterback controversies, the Old Ball Coach solved his this week by booting the much-maligned and controversy-prone Stephen Garcia off the team. Now Garcia can concentrate on letting his hair and beard grow out for the mug shot that now seems more inevitable than ever. Back on the field, maybe the closing of this chapter for the Gamecocks will help new starter Connor Shaw (last week’s SEC Offensive Player of the Week, by the way) and his teammates focus on the fact that they still have the inside track on their second consecutive visit to the SEC title game. Despite the breakout performance last week by backup Tyler Russell, Mississippi State's mostly middling team won’t be able to do much to un-track the Gamecocks come Saturday. Final: 27-12, South Carolina 

 

Georgia at Vanderbilt
I have already begun shopping around for a retreaded Bulldog jersey to wear to next week’s show, since my prediction of a few weeks back that Georgia (4-2) would be no better than 3-4 after this week’s game is now a statistical impossibility. Who knew the Dogs were going to start looking like a football team after an early beating, or two? Not me, and certainly not all those Georgia fans who gave up on Mark Richt after yet another lousy start to another ultimately disappointing season. Vandy (3-2) is no slouch right now so, unlike last season’s 43-0 Bulldog blowout in Athens, this one may be close for three quarters. Final: 27-17, Georgia 

 

No. 20 Baylor at No. 21 Texas A&M
These two teams are very evenly matched, statistically speaking. I think the outcomes will be decided by which quarterback gets his hands on the ball last. Will it be the Bears’ Robert Griffin III, who has thrown for over 1,500 yards, with 19 touchdowns and only one interception? Or A&M’s Ryan Tannehill, who has completed two-thirds of his passes and has almost 1,400 yards? If you want to see a high-scoring game Saturday morning, turn to FX at 11 a.m. and enjoy the fireworks. The odds makers claim the Aggies are a nine-point favorite. I think it will be a little closer than that. Final: 45-41, Texas A&M 

 

Jacksonville State at Austin Peay
The Gamecocks (4-1, 3-0) travel to Clarksville, Tenn. to take on Ohio Valley Conference opponent Austin Peay, a team whose defense gave up 61 points in a loss to UT-Martin a week ago. According to the Austin Peay Athletics Department website, the good news is that “AP” was still in the game with five minutes left before halftime. Much like UT-Martin did from that point on, the JSU offense exploded a week ago. In their 38-30 win over Murray State, the Gamecocks tallied 486 total yards of offense, including 329 on the ground. If junior running back Washaun Ealey can match last week’s effort (28 carries for 143 yards), and if Coty Blanchard can take advantage of the Governors’ lousy pass defense, the Gamecocks should be able to keep their own struggling pass defenders off the field. Final: 28-14, Jacksonville State