The live version of the WEIS End Zone Show last week at Sand Rock was awesome. I hope everyone who listened had as much fun hearing it as we did putting it on. Actually, Kurt Duryea and Nolen Sanford did – and always do – most of the work. Herald sportswriter Shannon Fagan and I show up five minutes prior to the “Are You Smarter Than a Sixth Grader?” segment, then grab a microphone and blab about football for 15-20 minutes. (It’s lucky for station owner Jerry Baker that he isn’t paying Shannon and me by the word.) 

Anyway, last week we were outside, in the corner by the end zone near the concession stand at Russell Jacoway Stadium. The smell of barbecue shared the evening air with the hint of a pending frost; footballs and blitzing linebackers were zipping back and forth beneath the field lights, too. It was, seemingly, a perfect night for football. 

And yet, the best Shannon and I could do with our weekly SEC picks was no better than that darned sixth grader. Again. So this week, it’s time to shake things up. I’ve thought long and hard about (almost) all of these games. No winging it this week, no gut feelings (for the most part, anyway). I’m going to look hard at the numbers and pass along what I believe they tell me about what will happen Saturday (unless we’re talking about the Ole Miss vs. Kentucky game because neither of those two is worth the effort).  

Come this time next week I’ll either be the new leader in this cockamamie contest or, like my good friend “Back Row Nolen”, just another goat.

No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama
I listened in on the CBS Sports conference call Tuesday for almost an hour and heard sportswriters ask college football analyst Gary Danielson dozens of questions about this game. But no one asked the one question that intrigues me most. Tide placekickers Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley have only booted 3.75 percent of their kickoffs into the end zone this season. LSU kicker Drew Alleman, on the other hand, averages a touchback 22 percent of the time. Here’s what I’m saying: So far, most everyone thinks the major clues about who wins this game lie somewhere among two rosters filled with speedy running backs and stout defenders. But all those comparisons are practically dead-even. Also, did I mention that LSU’s punter averages over five yards more per a kick than Alabama’s? There is a single distinct advantage in this game, as I see it, and LSU’s kicking game is it. If ‘Bama ends up attempting a late 49-yard field goal instead of a 41-yarder because a Tiger kickoff or punt forced the drive to start deep in Tide territory, then a kicker – from one team or the other – could very well end up being the hero of this game. I’ll be rooting against myself Saturday night, but ... Final: 21-20, LSU 

Writer’s note: The above was my first attempt at this week’s LSU vs. Alabama prediction, written Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday morning, I felt ill-at-ease. I realize the stats tell me LSU has an advantage in the kicking game that could be the difference Saturday night. But I just don’t believe it’s going to come down to that. My gut tells me ‘Bama is going to pound the Bayou Bengals. I’m talking about 8-10 points, easy. The game is at Bryant-Denny Stadium and I think, somehow, Les Miles will be overcome by the crowd and dip into his Mad Hatter bag of tricks one too many times. His team may have an advantage, but in the end this one gets away from him. I just feel it. Final: 24-16, Alabama

No. 9 South Carolina at No. 7 Arkansas
I think the key to this game is the South Carolina secondary. Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson is having a terrific season (63 percent completion rate, 2,327 yards passing, 13 touchdowns) and this is a battle of one-loss, top ten teams that will have huge implications in the conference, especially if South Carolina can find a way to rattle Wilson. The Gamecock secondary has the number-three pass defensive in the nation right now, so this task is doable for Steve Spurrier’s team despite it being homecoming in Fayetteville. If true freshman tailback Brandon Wilds runs the ball like he did last week, South Carolina can keep Wilson off the field. And if the defense can force Wilson to make a couple of mistakes when he does finally get the ball – especially if Arkansas is playing catch-up after yet another slow start – the Gamecocks will add to their season total of 16 interceptions by at least a couple and pretty much lock up their spot in yet another SEC title game. Final: 24-20, South Carolina

UT Martin at Mississippi State
We all know what happened the last time Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs played host to a team dressed like the Auburn Tigers. The incident took place Sept. 10, the team in question actually was the Auburn Tigers, and Mississippi State gave the game away, 41-34, at the end (or, if you prefer, lacked the stones to take it back). This week, faced with another team wearing almost identical uniforms (the exception being the “UTM” logo on the helmet), look for a similarly close affair. The Skyhawks are a decent football team, and I think they’ll give the Bulldogs a fight for at least three quarters. Final: 31-21, Mississippi State

Ole Miss at Kentucky
Yes, Ole Miss is a terrible football team. Yes, Houston Nutt is losing touch with his players. Yes, Nutt should probably spend Saturday afternoon working on his resume instead of trying to coach his way out of the paper sack that is the Kentucky Wildcats. Yes, Kentucky is every bit as terrible as the Rebels. Yes, the game is in Lexington. Yes, I usually stick with the home team when all other factors appear even. Yes, these teams are even. Yes, by that I mean that each is just as dreadful as the other. Yes, if we all agree not to discuss or even think about this game any more after right … NOW, it will be over and done with before we know it. Final: 27-14, Ole Miss

Vanderbilt at Florida
I’m casting aside the numbers for this one, although if printed they would probably tell the story quite succinctly. I already mentioned that I listened to CBS college football analyst Gary Danielson Tuesday morning. Despite the nature of the call (the primary purpose was to discuss the LSU vs. Alabama game) one sportswriter broke protocol and asked about how he thought Wil Muschamp is doing in his first season as head coach at Florida. Possibly perturbed by the change of subject, Danielson scoffed that Muschamp is doing the best he can with a bare cupboard. “You need a steak knife to win in the SEC,” Danielson said. “Right now, Muschamp is working with a butter knife. He’s got nothing.” Meanwhile, this is not your ordinary fleet of Commodores. They’ve got a little something, despite how they looked in the second half against Arkansas. They’ll stay afloat this week in the Swamp. Final: 28-13, Vanderbilt

New Mexico State at No. 18 Georgia
Georgia needs help to make it to the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta next month, and as I mentioned above I don’t think they’ll get it from South Carolina this weekend. At least the Bulldogs will be at home after a stretch of road games and the trip to Jacksonville, Fla. last week. Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray seems comfortable in the up-tempo offensive style Mark Richt has shown a proclivity for of late. The Aggies (3-5) have a decent offense, but the defense has given up 93 points in its last two games, both losses. Georgia should be able to rest some key players for the stretch run of Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech and fine-tune the offense, which ran over 80 plays last week in the win over Florida. Final: 45-17, Georgia

Middle Tennessee at Tennessee
In case you haven’t been following them, I can tell you from a few minutes of research that the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are a below-average football team. They are 2-5 and haven’t looked very good all season long, save for a 45-20 win over Louisiana a week ago. Before that, there was nothing. Speaking of nothing, the Volunteers are working from a bare cupboard too, it seems, and Derek Dooley’s corona-agitating pants can’t be good for recruiting. It’s going to be a battle of the have-nots in Neyland Stadium Saturday. Still, Dooley’s slightly-less-limited talent pool – and those dreadful britches – should be enough to blind the Blue Raiders. Final: 33-14, Tennessee  

Texas A&M at Oklahoma
I thought I had a bead on what Texas A&M was capable of when I picked them last week against Missouri. Sure, I was right about another last-minute finish, but the Aggies ended up losing another one and are simply too inconsistent to have a wealth of confidence in at this point. The Sooners, on the other hand, are playing like men possessed. Most of the experts thought last week’s game against Kansas State was going to be close. I think any college football prognosticator who didn’t learn a lesson from what Bob Stoops’ boys accomplished against the Cougars isn’t much of an “expert” at all. After losing to Texas Tech, Oklahoma cannot afford another loss if they want to end up in the BCS Championship Game in New Orleans – and that’s where they are bound and determined to get to. This one won’t be as close as the final score indicates – and the final score won’t be close. Final: 38-21, Oklahoma

Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State
If you’re a Gamecock fan who is contemplating staying home this Saturday and listening to JSU’s final home game on the radio, you might be onto something. Enjoy the 65-degree weather in your backyard while you get the grill cleaned up for burgers and dogs prior to the LSU vs. Alabama game. The Colonels decided, a few weeks back, to revert to the old Power-I formation and use their size and strength to ground out four yards at a time. Since losing to Austin Peay and making that switch, the Colonels are perfect in the win column. Coty Blanchard and the rest of Jack Crowe’s boys will give EKU run for their money, but in the end it will be Matt Denham and the Colonels’ running game that will cash in the winning chit. Final: 27-20, Eastern Kentucky