Nov. 22, 2011

SEC Week 13: Thirteen? Heck, that's my lucky number

By SCOTT WRIGHT

I woke up at 5:30 this morning in a cold sweat. I realized this is the final week of the WEIS End Zone Show’s SEC pick ‘em segment, featuring play-by-play announcer Nolen Sanford, Cherokee Herald sports editor Shannon Fagan and me against some sci-fi sixth grader who has apparently taken a journey into the future and returned with a copy of Marty McFly’s Grays Sports Almanac. 

I mean, come on. How else could a 12-year-old out-pick three “experts” like us? This young person would have to be twice as old as he is to have even seen Marty, Biff and the gang make their DeLorean-flying debut in 1985, much less know the difference between the wing-T and a Model T. And now he’s out-picked us all by at least one game and we’ve had (so far) 92 opportunities to outperform him with our vast football knowledge?  

No way. Someone needs to make like a tree and get out of here.  

Thirteen (as in week 13) darned well BETTER be my lucky number, because the number 12 (as in 12-year-old) has not been. Oh well, as long as I finish ahead of Nolen this exercise will not have been a total loss. And that, at least, seems assured – unless I make like an idiot with this week’s picks. If that happens I’ll hop into my flying wing-T, zoom it up to 88 mph and spend what’s left of this football season hanging out by the spiked punch bowl at the Enchantment Under the Sea dance. 

 

No. 2 Alabama at No. 24 Auburn
I know most football fans believe records and rankings don’t mean anything in the Iron Bowl, but the comparison between these two teams makes it clear to me that this game is going to be a blowout. I’ll stop after just one comparison, because the rest won’t matter: Auburn is the 98th-ranked rushing defense in the country; Alabama averages 220 yards per game on the ground. The end. What I’m saying is that A.J. McCarron may not have to throw the ball five times all day. On the other hand, Auburn will have to throw to have any shot. And that’s too bad, because Auburn is 106th in passing offense and the Crimson Tide pass defense ranks No. 1 in the nation. Alabama’s been a slow starter all season but I still predict this one is over after two quarters. Unlike a year ago, the Tide will make a big halftime lead stick this time. Final: 31-10, Alabama 

 

No. 3 Arkansas at No. 1 LSU
I’m having a hard time imagining how this game will play out. On one hand, I can conceive that LSU might blow out the Razorbacks like they have pretty much everyone else on their schedule this season (Alabama and Mississippi State being the exceptions). On the other hand, I can see LSU’s back-and-forth quarterback situation getting the Tigers into a hole on the scoreboard that they can’t climb out, provided the Arkansas offense is clicking on all cylinders for all four quarters – and they have been playing very well lately. Just about every other top ten team in the BCS standings has had a hiccup this season, right? So why shouldn’t I go crazy here? For the sake of trying to outgun that time-traveling sixth grader, I’ll pull the trigger on one more major upset. Final: 24-22, Arkansas
 

 

Ole Miss at Mississippi State
OK, I finally officially gave up on Houston Nutt last week in this column, so there’s no turning back now. Ole Miss leads this series 60-41-6, but based on what I’ve seen from both teams this season you have to figure the Bulldogs will close that gap Saturday at David Wade Stadium in Starkville. Seriously, Ole Miss isn’t worth a flip at anything. I don’t like the fact that Dan Mullen is reportedly planning to rotate three quarterbacks in this year’s Egg Bowl, but at least his team can play a little defense, here and there. Final: 21-13, Mississippi State 

 

Florida State at Florida
The headline in the sports section of the Tuesday edition of the Florida Times-Union said it all: “It’s just a couple of very average teams.” I’ll second that. Florida State finally erased six years of misery with last year’s 31-7 win, and has shown signs of returning to prominence this season, going 7-4 so far. But for the past couple of weeks, the Seminoles have been settling for field goal attempts instead of touchdowns – and all you Alabama fans out there know what can happen when your offense is forced to settle for field goal attempts. Florida racked up 54 points last week, but gave up 32 to FCS opponent Furman. (At one time, the Gators trailed 22-7 thanks to Furman’s potent triple-option attack.) I think this game will be fun to watch, and that the home team finds a way to win in the end. Final: 24-21, Florida
 

 

Georgia at Georgia Tech
After an impressive turnaround following an ugly 0-2 start, the Bulldogs just barely eked out a win against lowly Kentucky a week ago despite the game being the chance to lock up the SEC East title. Add to that the fact that I have had Georgia fans tell me all season how they fear their team’s past tendency to “roll over” in meaningless games – and let’s face it, this game is meaningless except for the rivalry aspect. If the Yellow Jackets can get their high-powered offense rolling, the Ramblin’ Wreck may run right over the Dogs in Atlanta. Final: 34-27, Georgia Tech 

 

Tennessee at Kentucky
Who to choose? Bad, or worse? I’ll go with bad. Final: 27-13, Tennessee
 

 

Clemson at South Carolina
I’m always giving Nolen a hard time on the WEIS End Zone Show because it’s so hard for him to pick against his alma mater. This week, I sort of feel his pain. But my old roommate, now the Clemson coach, had a dismal outing last week; and South Carolina would love nothing better than to send Dabo Swinney and the Tigers into the ACC Championship game on a two-week losing streak. (The Gamecocks have little else to play for, really.) Last week Clemson was hideously one-dimensional without freshman phenomenon Sammy Watkins, managing only 34 yards rushing on 28 carries as a team. This week, despite Clemson’s dismal defense, Watkins will be the difference … if his aching shoulder holds up. Otherwise, Clemson may end up dropping three of its last four, thereby pulling yet another aptly-named “Clemson.” I hope not. Final: 38-28, Clemson

 

Vanderbilt at Wake Forest
Statistically, these two teams appear to be about dead-even. Also, Vanderbilt is the visiting team. And yet, for some reason the odds makers have the Commodores as a 1.5-point favorite. Whatever. I think Wake Forest quarterback Tanner Price will be the difference in this one. He’s thrown 19 touchdowns this season against only six interceptions. Vandy is a little better at running the ball than the Demon Deacons, but they will be in no position to grind things out if they’re behind by 14 points or so after Price gets a few shots at the end zone. Final: 28-21, Wake Forest 

 

Texas at Texas A&M
The Aggies’ pass defense is terrible, allowing over 290 yards per game. You might think that’s good news for the Longhorns, but they’ve got a pair of shaky (so far) quarterbacks and haven’t been able to take advantage of other porous pass defenses this season. Earlier in the week, a sports columnist for the Austin Statesman wrote that he’d be satisfied with any outcome, as long as there is some “craziness”, or maybe even “some controversy” Thursday night at Kyle Field. Personally, I’ll be watching to see if Longhorns quarterback Case McCoy can solidify himself as the starter. If he looks sharp Saturday Texas will be in great shape to get what could be the last laugh in this 107-year-old rivalry, since A&M joins the SEC next year. Final: 37-34, Texas